Changing trend

It looks like things might be on the upswing for Hillary. Talking Points Memo's headline "Clinton Expands Lead Over Trump In New National Tracking Poll" and their poll tracker shows that her lead is expanding into more comfortable margins.

(I can't figure out how to imbed the little sucker without some security warning, so just click the link)

The gains are seen in the NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll, which has switched its survey sample to likely voters over registered voters. (This makes sense; only people who actually vote will affect the race).

Here are the results:

Clinton has 50% support to Trump's 45% in a head to head poll. Even more interesting is that the margin of error is at +/-  1.2

These numbers provide a margin of error of the difference between Clinton and Trump support of +/- 2.4 using the method described here).

This margin of error is smaller than Clinton's 5 point lead meaning that the measured lead has statistical significance. This is the first poll I've seen this month that has statistical significance; good news for Clinton supporters.

Last week I posited that the Clinton camp needed to take a "wait and see" approach before getting too concerned. The next round of poll results will be key, but if they follow the trend of the NBC/SM survey, there's nothing to worry about.

In other news, Sens. Blumenthal and Murphy share their thoughts on polling. Good sound bites; hardly revolutionary.